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Daily Market Intelligence · Serfit PA Research
Monday · 2026-11-09Payrolls double forecasts and Fed hike odds jump to nearly 80% as Wall Street bounces from its AI rout; October CPI on Tuesday is the testVol. I · No. 134
S&P 500
7,354
-4.36%
as of Nov 05
Nasdaq
24,579
+1.09%
Dow
51,286
-0.46%
Bitcoin
$75,240
-0.60%
Gold
$4,100
+0.60%
Silver
$52
+0.68%
Brent
$107
-0.34%
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
$3
+3.54%

The Investor's Edge

Wall Street bounced Friday after its worst day since April 2025: the S&P 500 rose 0.31% to 7,376.86 and the Nasdaq Composite 1.09%, though the S&P still lost 2.7% on the week. On the measured board the semiconductor basket gained 4.64%, technology 1.16% and small caps 0.89%.

The jobs report changed the rate story. October payrolls rose 165,000 against about 59,000 expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, and the odds of a December Fed hike climbed to nearly 80%.

Asia followed the bounce Monday, with the Nikkei up 2.3% and Taiwan's Taiex up 4.9%, while Brent slipped to $96.60 on hopes for Iran talks. Spot gold stands at a measured $4,099.50 on the Nov-9 mark.

What to watch: October CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, with consensus near +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, a flurry of Fed speakers, and PPI on Friday.

This edition went to press before the American open on Monday. Primary figures are measured from our own store and each item is date-stamped. Spot gold and silver carry a 9 November mark, bitcoin an 8 November mark, the sector baskets Friday's 6 November session, and the S&P 500, VIX, Treasury curve and credit spreads the 5 November session, with oil from 3 November. Friday's index closes, the jobs report, Monday's Asian moves, oil levels and company results are web figures. Where a measured mark and a reported level differ, the measured figure is the one this brief stands behind.
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The Quant Brief · © 2026 Serfit PA Research
Source data: BLS, Federal Reserve (H.10/H.15) via FRED; cited web sources per item.

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